IAF fighter jet fleet future prospect : Rafale, Su-57 or all Indigenous

– By Raflanker

Do 114 Rafales or Su-57s fit into the current Indian fleet?

Current Fleet:

 ●13 Sqdns Su-30 MKI

 ● 2 Sqdns Rafale

 ● 3 Sqdns Mirage 2000

 ● 3 Sqdns MiG-29

 ● 2 Sqdns Tejas Mk1

 ● 6 Sqdns Jaguar

  Total: 29 Squadrons

Currently on Order:

 ● 10 Sqdns Tejas Mk1A

 ● 1 Sqdn Su-30 MKI*

To be Retired in the Next 10 Years:

 ● 3 Sqdns Mirage 2000

 ● 3 Sqdns MiG-29

 ● 6 Sqdns Jaguar

 Total: 12 Squadrons

Analysis:

Practically, we are going to retire 12 squadrons and have 11 squadrons on order as replacements.

The sanctioned strength is 42 squadrons, but the practical assessment is that to counter a three-front threat, we need 50. To reach the sanctioned strength of 42, we need 14 more squadrons; to reach 50, we need 22 more.

If we commit to 10 squadrons of Tejas Mk2—the induction of which is not expected before 2032 (assuming that is how long it will take to complete the Mk1A order)—and produce 24 aircraft per annum, it will take 8 years to deliver all the aircraft. That brings us to 2040. Beyond this point, we may need to retire the initial batch of Su-30s. To replace those Su-30s, the AMCA should be ready.

However, the problem remains that we are still 4 squadrons short of the sanctioned strength of 42, and 12 squadrons short of the comfortable strength of 50.

My question is: How should we acquire these additional 4–12 squadrons by 2040?

There are 3 options:

1. Induct a Foreign Fighter: Su-57, Rafale, or a 3rd option

This option might not integrate perfectly with the current projected fleet.

Rafale: It can integrate well with the current IAF and Indian Navy Rafale fleet. However, with the rest of the fleet—specifically the Su-30s—I do not have a good feeling about interoperability. Another issue is that the F3R and F4 standards will likely require upgrades to F5 standards to remain relevant, which will be a costly affair.

Su-57: Russia is known to be more liberal regarding interoperability. However, I don’t have full confidence that sensors of Su-57 will integrate well with Indian platforms to provide seamless interplatform data fusion capability. Also, as per some discussions, integrating limited Indian electronics onto the Su-57 poses certain operating environment challenges creating complexities in platform itself. Additionally, the Russians are known to charge exorbitant amounts for such integrations.

2. Build an Additional Line for Tejas Mk2

This would involve taking total capacity to 32 aircraft per year and increasing the total order of Mk2 to 15 squadrons. However, the biggest issue is sourcing the foreign components (specifically engines) needed to sustain this production rate. I consider sourcing 32 GE-414 engines per annum to be nearly impossible.

3. Create a Separate Line for HLFT-42

This entails building the HLFT-42 with AL-41 engines. The question is, what type of performance are we looking for? This could be a very good idea if we can define the needs clearly.

In my personal opinion, although inducting either the Rafale or Su-57 will pose certain integration challenges, it will certainly not eat into the orders for indigenous platforms. The IAF has operated platforms from both the East and West until now and has managed it somehow; they can bear the same for the next 1.5 decades.

Also, the overall ecosystem will become more indigenous with the upgrade of the Su-30s with all-Indian electronics. The Rafale or Su-57 will remain the “odd ones out” but can operate with limited integration while providing for the deficiency in squadron strength that has persisted for so long.

For now, it seems the IAF is going full steam ahead with 114 Rafales (6 squadrons). But, for sure, this won’t eat into the Mk2 orders.