This article is the first of a three-part series analyzing the potential risks associated with India’s Project 75I submarine program. The Indian Navy’s operational readiness may be delayed by over a decade if the program falters. Project 75I is crucial for enhancing India’s submarine capabilities and maintaining dominance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), especially in the face of the growing Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).
1. The Indian Navy’s Need for Modern Submarines
The Indian Navy is in urgent need of new-generation submarines to stay competitive with the rapidly expanding Chinese navy in the IOR. The original goal was to have 24 state-of-the-art conventional submarines in service by 2030. However, the Navy has not even reached 25% of that goal.
At present, the submarine fleet comprises 7 Kilo-class, 4 Type-209, and 6 Scorpène-class submarines. Of these 17, only the 6 Kalvari-class submarines—acquired as part of Project 75—are relatively modern. However, they too lack the Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems necessary for extended endurance and stealth, which are critical for modern naval warfare.
This situation has left the Navy vulnerable in the short term, relying on aging platforms that will struggle to meet future operational requirements, particularly in contested waters like the Indian Ocean.
2. Project 75I’s Importance and Vendor Complications
Project 75I is essential for the Navy’s ability to field advanced, stealth-capable submarines. This project cannot afford to stumble into what some describe as a “vendor card game” where manufacturers agree to initial terms only to negotiate terms to arm twist level once deep into the process. This bait-and-switch has occurred in previous Indian defense procurements, notably in cases like the MTU engines from Germany for the Arjun tank, refusal in technology transfer during ongoing negotiation of the MQ-9 Reaper deal, and the GE F404 engines deal.
These issues show a worrying pattern: vendors sometimes fail to deliver on the promises made during early stages of negotiation, leaving India in a difficult position. The Navy cannot afford similar problems with Project 75I, as a failure or significant delay would severely impact its operational capabilities.
3. The Curious Case of Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems
Reports suggest that a variant of Type 214 submarine from Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) is the likely choice for Project 75I. However, this raises an important question: how did TKMS agree to conditions that other vendors rejected?
Many defense manufacturers walked away from the tender due to its stringent requirements, such as high levels of technology transfer and local production mandates. Even Thyssenkrupp was initially cautious about these conditions. So why has TKMS agreed to a deal that others have not? This mystery raises concerns about whether the German company fully understands the risks involved or if there are other motivations at play.
This is not just about technology. The experience of Pipavav Shipyard, which won a contract to build five naval offshore patrol vessels, is a stark warning. After 10 years, the contract was canceled, and two half-built ships—the Shachi and Shruti—are still rusting in the shipyard. In process Navy lost a decade and it cannot afford a similar disaster with its submarine program, as it would deal a severe blow to its long-term operational planning.
Shachi-class offshore patrol vessel
4. The High Stakes for the Indian Navy
The stakes are incredibly high for the Indian Navy. The delay or failure of Project 75I could set the Navy back by more than a decade, severely impacting its ability to patrol and dominate the Indian Ocean Region. The project needs to be closely monitored to ensure it does not fall prey to the same pitfalls as previous procurement programs.
In our next article, we will delve deeper into the reasons why Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems agreed to the tender terms, explore the strategic calculations behind their decision, and examine what they hope to achieve through this critical submarine deal.