-By Animesh Pratap Singh
In mid-2025, the United States deployed warships, including the USS Jason Dunham, USS Gravely, USS Sampson, and USS Lake Erie, to the Caribbean Sea near Venezuelan waters. Washington framed the buildup as part of counter-narcotics operations targeting Venezuelan-linked cartels such as Tren de Aragua. The move coincided with mounting disputes over Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election, which the US labeled fraudulent, rejecting Nicolás Maduro’s contested victory.
Tensions spiked on September 3, 2025, when a US strike sank a Venezuelan vessel allegedly carrying drugs, killing 11. Venezuelan F-16 jets buzzed the USS Jason Dunham on September 4–5, prompting Washington to deploy ten F-35 stealth fighters to Puerto Rico. President Trump warned Caracas that “dangerous maneuvers” would result in Venezuelan aircraft being shot down, reiterating allegations that Maduro’s government is tied to drug trafficking—charges Venezuela denies.
Maduro responded by mobilizing 8 million citizens, including 4 million Bolivarian Militia members, for potential military duty. While threatening “armed struggle,” he also called for dialogue, arguing disputes with the US did not justify open conflict.
China, in sharp contrast to Washington, condemned the US military buildup as “foreign interference.” During a WWII commemoration, Maduro hailed Beijing as “the first military power on planet Earth,” underscoring growing alignment. In May 2025, China granted Venezuela a $5 billion loan for oil production, and speculation swirls that Beijing could supply drones or missiles, raising the specter of a proxy war.
Historical Background and Venezuela-China Treaties
Diplomatic ties between Venezuela and China date back to 1944 but deepened after 1974, when Caracas recognized the People’s Republic of China over Taiwan. Relations accelerated under Hugo Chávez (1999–2013), who forged a “strategic development partnership” in 2001—the first of its kind with a Hispanic country. Maduro upgraded this to an “all-weather strategic partnership” in 2014.
Since 1999, the two countries have signed more than 600 agreements spanning energy, infrastructure, defense, and technology, all geared toward reducing US influence in Latin America. Venezuela joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2018, embedding itself in Beijing’s global infrastructure strategy.
Key Agreements (Highlights):
- Strategic Development Partnership (2001): Foundation for deepening economic and military ties.
- China-Venezuela Joint Fund (2007–ongoing): $48–67B in loans repaid with oil, supporting energy and housing.
- Joint Development Plan (2015–2025): Energy, agriculture, technology; 11 deals under its framework.
- Energy and Trade Agreements (July 2025): Pacts across sectors, anchored by a $5B loan.
- Military Cooperation (2007–ongoing): $615M in Chinese arms sales; ongoing J-10C fighter jet talks ($40M each).
- Space & Mining (2017–2023): Launch of Venezuela’s first satellite, mining maps, astronaut training for future Moon missions.
Why China Supports Venezuela Despite US Sanctions?
Beijing’s continued support for Venezuela rests on intertwined economic, strategic, and ideological factors:
- Economic Interests: Venezuela supplies 381,000–640,000 bpd of oil, critical for China’s energy security and loan repayment. Chinese firms also gain access to strategic minerals like gold and bauxite.
- Strategic Goals: Venezuela is China’s only “all-weather strategic partner” in South America, offering a counterweight to US dominance in the Western Hemisphere.
- Ideological Alignment: Both oppose unilateral sanctions, framing them as violations of sovereignty.
- Military Support: China has sold radars, aircraft, and riot gear, and ongoing negotiations over J-10C jets underscore military deepening.
- Sanction-Evasion Networks:
Through BRICS+ mechanisms, China helps Venezuela skirt Western restrictions.
Two additional global shifts embolden Beijing’s stance:
- Industrial Capacity Achilles Heel of the West:
The Ukraine and Palestine conflicts have exposed the West’s strained weapons stockpiles and sluggish industrial capacity. This vulnerability reassures China that it can openly support Venezuela without facing overwhelming Western escalation capacity.
- BRICS+ Sanction Resilience:
With the BRICS+ framework expanding financial, trade, and energy networks beyond the dollar, Western sanctions are increasingly blunted. Beijing can argue that US attempts to isolate Venezuela only highlight Washington’s overreach—especially after US “clownish rants” against India, which Beijing seizes on to portray the West as dictatorial and domineering toward sovereign nations.
Future Possibilities for Regional Peace
The Caribbean now faces elevated risks of escalation, with ripple effects on regional stability:
- Escalation Risks: Venezuela could lean on China, Russia, and Iran for drones, missiles, or intelligence, while the US strengthens security cooperation with Guyana in the Essequibo dispute. This risks proxy-war dynamics.
- Oil Market Shocks: Disruption of Venezuela’s ~800,000 bpd output could spike global oil prices by 10–20%, compounding the energy crunch caused by sanctions on Russia.
- Positive Scenarios: UN, ALBA, or even China-led mediation remains possible if dialogue prevails. Regional actors like Colombia and Brazil may resist US pressure for military escalation.
- Sanctions and Economy: Venezuela’s economy shrank 72% (2012–2020), worsened by sanctions. Production recovered with the 2023 Barbados deal but faces new risks.
Hypothetical US Attack: Population and Geography Impacts
Venezuela’s 29 million people are heavily urbanized, concentrated in Caracas, Maracaibo, and other coastal hubs. Its rugged Andes, vast rainforests, and oil-rich Orinoco Basin favor protracted guerrilla resistance.
A US strike would likely involve naval and aerial campaigns targeting military sites, PDVSA oil facilities, and command centers. Ground invasion risks prolonged urban warfare, civilian casualties in the millions, and further refugee crises—adding to the 7.7 million Venezuelans already displaced. Environmental disaster from sabotage of oilfields or Caribbean oil spills could cripple global supply chains.
Any such war would not remain confined: Cuba, Russia, and China could all be drawn in, potentially internationalizing the conflict and destabilizing the wider Caribbean basin.
Conclusion
The unfolding US–Venezuela confrontation in 2025 illustrates how localized disputes are increasingly embedded within global power transitions. While Washington frames its actions in terms of counter-narcotics and democratic legitimacy, Caracas—backed by Beijing—presents the crisis as a struggle for sovereignty against external interference. China’s continued engagement, rooted in oil-for-loan mechanisms, strategic partnerships, and anti-hegemonic discourse, reflects both pragmatic economic interests and broader efforts to recalibrate the global order toward multipolarity.
Importantly, the episode underscores two structural shifts: first, the exposure of Western industrial limitations in sustaining simultaneous conflicts, as revealed in Ukraine and Palestine, has altered strategic calculations; and second, the BRICS+ framework offers states like Venezuela alternative avenues to mitigate the coercive reach of Western sanctions. Together, these dynamics create conditions in which China perceives lower risks and higher rewards in supporting Venezuela, even at the expense of escalating tensions with the United States.
Nevertheless, the prospect of direct great-power conflict in the Caribbean remains low. Historical experience, economic interdependence, and the high costs of intervention constrain escalation. The greater danger lies in proxy dynamics, regional instability, and oil market disruptions, which could ripple across the global economy. Ultimately, the crisis serves as a barometer for the evolving balance of power: whether the United States can preserve its traditional sphere of influence in the Americas, or whether China, leveraging strategic partnerships and institutional alternatives, can erode the US-led order without resorting to overt confrontation.