The competition between the French Dassault Rafale and the American Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is intensifying across Europe. This rivalry is not just about military hardware but also about strategic autonomy, defense-industrial interests, and geopolitical alignments. The outcome will have deep implications on India’s fighter jet quest and procurement strategy.
The Trump Factor and NATO Uncertainty
U.S. President Donald Trump has introduced volatility into NATO’s collective defense commitments. He has openly questioned the U.S.’s willingness to defend NATO allies that do not meet the mandated 2% defense spending requirement. This has created concerns among European nations, especially amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Portugal’s reconsideration of its F-35 acquisition is seen as a response to these shifting security assurances.
This uncertainty has pushed European countries to reassess their long-term defense strategies. The dependence on American defense assets, particularly the F-35, is now viewed with increasing skepticism in some European circles. Additionally, Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy has made European leaders wary of over reliance on U.S. security guarantees.
Macron’s Strategic Push for Rafale
French President Emmanuel Macron has taken a proactive approach to strengthening European defense capabilities. France plans to increase its defense budget to 3-3.5% of GDP, reinforcing its position as a European security guarantor. Macron has also proposed extending France’s nuclear deterrence—its so-called nuclear umbrella—to European nations seeking strategic autonomy from the U.S.
As part of this broader vision, Macron is aggressively promoting the Rafale platform. France has announced an increase in Rafale orders and a €1.5 billion investment to modernize the Luxeuil-les-Bains air base near Germany’s border. This move aligns with France’s nuclear strike doctrine and aims to present the Rafale F5 as Europe’s indigenous near-fifth-generation fighter jet, offering an alternative to the F-35.
Rafale vs F-35: The European Battlefield
The European fighter jet market is a battleground for the Rafale vs F-35, each offering distinct advantages.
- Lockheed Martin F-35: A stealth-enabled, fifth-generation aircraft optimized for network-centric warfare, sensor fusion, and interoperability within NATO’s integrated air defense network. Countries like Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Poland have committed to the F-35, benefiting from its low-observability and advanced electronic warfare capabilities.
- Dassault Rafale: A highly maneuverable, multirole fighter with exceptional reliability, independent operational sovereignty, and a robust electronic warfare suite. France is positioning the Rafale F5 as a credible alternative for nations wary of U.S. export restrictions, software dependencies, and potential operational constraints imposed by Washington.
Portugal’s decision to reassess its F-35 acquisition signals a potential shift in European procurement trends. Should other nations follow suit, France’s vision of a European defense framework built around the Rafale could gain traction.
India’s Stake in the Rafale vs F-35 Debate
India is deeply invested in the outcome of this transatlantic rivalry. The Indian Air Force (IAF) currently operates 36 Rafale F3R jets, and the upcoming F4 variant will bring enhanced connectivity, stealth, and weapon systems which many in india thought as logical choice. Macron’s vision for faster development of Rafale F5 aligns with India’s long-term modernization goals, making it a strong contender for the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program. However this additional order will add to already swamped order book of Rafale, extending further availability beyond 2032.
However, Trump’s recent statement regarding a potential F-35 offer to India adds complexity. Historically, the U.S. has been hesitant to provide cutting-edge technology to non-ally nations, but Trump’s transactional approach to defense deals could change this precedent.
Furthermore, India’s indigenous fighter programs, including the Tejas Mk1A and Mk2, rely on American propulsion systems—the GE F404 and GE F414 engines, respectively. With such critical dependencies on U.S. technology, Washington may leverage its position to influence India’s MRFA decision.
Strategic Manufacturing and Global Supply Chain Challenges
India’s emphasis on self-reliance in defense manufacturing under the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ initiative presents an opportunity for both the Rafale vs F-35. If Europe seeks to scale Rafale production, setting up a final assembly line in India could serve mutual interests, much like the Indo-French Scorpène-class submarine collaboration. However, as in case of Scorpène-class the technology transfer may remain only on papers.
However, given India’s existing commitments to American jet engines and potential procurement of the GE F110 for the AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft), the U.S. could attempt to pull India towards the F-35 ecosystem. This would pose a significant challenge for Macron’s push to expand Rafale’s footprint in India.
Moreover, logistical and maintenance aspects play a critical role. The F-35’s complex software integration, ALIS/ODIN maintenance system, and strict U.S. export control regulations contrast with Rafale’s relative ease of maintenance, combat-proven ruggedness, and full sovereign control over its operational parameters but Trump’s push and technological superiority of Rafale vs F35 may also be point of consideration.
Can India Leverage the Situation?
As Macron and Trump engage in a high-stakes contest over fighter jet dominance in Europe, India has a unique window to negotiate the best possible deal. This competition could drive better technology transfer agreements, offset arrangements, and industrial participation for India.
However, given the fluid nature of global geopolitics, securing a definitive agreement remains uncertain. If Trump’s NATO policies continue to drive European nations away from U.S. platforms, the Rafale could emerge stronger. Conversely, if India sees strategic benefits in deeper integration with the U.S. military-industrial complex, an F-35 pathway may open up.
Overall, The Rafale vs F-35 rivalry is more than just a procurement contest—it is a battle of defense doctrines, technological independence, and strategic alliances. Europe’s fighter jet decisions will shape not only NATO’s future but also India’s defense posture. Whether India aligns with France’s vision for the Rafale F5 or explores an F-35 acquisition will depend on political, economic, and strategic imperatives in the coming years.
As the geopolitical landscape evolves, India must carefully assess not just the platforms but also the strategic benefits of its partnerships. With ongoing uncertainties in Europe, the time may be ripe for India to turn this competition into an opportunity for its own defense ambitions.
That is OK but does Europe has soldiers. Do they posses the will to fight? What will the soldier fight for? UK has only 10k battle ready troops, Germans have zero exposure, France is at some position but not enough to win war.
F35b seems interesting to small islands defensively from kerelacoast F35B seems interesting to small islands defensively from Kerala Coast Lakshadweep islands to Mauritius and Diego Garcia in south defense and to Marian coast gwadar port attack offensive occupations role
F35b seems interesting to bay of Bengal defense from north Andamanislands to counter the chin pearl of necklace to south lanka chin port attack role and Christmas Island interoperability with quad